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#1 Constellation Brands (Ticker: STZ)

Background:

STZ owns leading beer brands like Corona and Modelo, as well as a portfolio of wine and spirits. The stock has declined recently following Trump's announcement of a potential 25% tariff on Mexican imports, set to take effect on March 4th.

Thesis:

Beer has low price sensitivity, meaning consumers are likely to continue purchasing even if prices rise due to tariffs. Given this, I believe the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario of a full 25% tariff.

• If the tariff is implemented, STZ’s stock price is unlikely to decline further since the market has already accounted for this risk.

• If Mexico negotiates a lower tariff or avoids it entirely, the stock should rebound to pre-tariff levels as uncertainty fades.

In short, I believe STZ is an asymmetric bet (high upside, limited downside).